Manufacture period and Juyo Sessions

The info has been out there for a long while that the mid 70s Juyo sessions have weaker standards than the others. Every time I mention this I like to mention that this happened by lowering the bottom bar and accepting blades that may not have been accepted in other sessions. It doesn’t mean that all the blades are bad or blades at the top end of the range are bad. It just means that weaker blades got included, so you need to carefully study Juyo swords when you’re dealing with sessions between about 20 to 28.

As the top end is perfectly fine, the best swords in those sessions go on to pass Tokubetsu Juyo normally. At the bottom end there is zero chance of advancing and again if they were just sent in as new items a lot of them would fail today.

For this reason those blades are a target for arbitrage which is where dealers (who buy and sell based on quality) can buy those blades for cheap relative to better blades. They then sell to their customers (who buy and sell based on paper). Because the two groups are using different systems to value the swords, it creates a chance to profit. That is these lower quality swords will trade among people who know better for proper prices. Lower quality = lower price.

Continue reading Manufacture period and Juyo Sessions

Unpleasant Medicine for Sword Shows

Commercially based sword shows throughout the world get some mixed results. The two most healthy are the San Francisco show in August and the Dai Token Ichi in Tokyo, which is usually in the first couple weeks of November now.

Sword shows serve a few purposes. They are social gatherings, educational opportunities, and then a chance to buy or sell things.

I’m of the opinion that the bell started tolling on sword shows a while back, for many combined reasons and the process is a drawn out death spiral.

Importantly, I don’t want this to be read as criticism for show organizers. Building something, anything, is a complex task and usually people underestimate the effort and stress that goes into these things. I have never organized a sword show and I don’t know the pain and suffering involved, I absolutely do know though that organizing anything involving people on a large scale is like herding cats. Not an easy task. 

But I think these shows are mostly on the way out. Here’s what I think is wrong with them, and here is what I think the eventual solution is.

Continue reading Unpleasant Medicine for Sword Shows


Saw this in the news… lost 1600s era painting going to auction. What struck me is that the sword to my eye does not look at all like the European swords of the time. It looks like a ken of some sort. It appears to have a hamon on it and a clearly defined shinogi and maybe a European hilt added to it.

No other content here, just a hmm moment.

For reference:

The item in question and what it makes me think of:

The sample ken here is quite a bit longer (93cm) than the one being used in the picture. It is a prewar Kokuho which is now Juyo Bunkazai and possibly Naminohira school.

Another way of looking at things…

Another long day here. Finishing work at 5am. Again.

So, a chart for your perusal. I won’t walk you through it this time but leave you to think about it.

The difference here is an important concept.

Every Tokuju item is already something that passed Juyo. Every Kokuho item is already something that was ranked Juyo Bunkazai previously.

In this chart those papers have been plotted at the time of publication of the original sword’s papers.

So going along this chart left to right it goes up in time with all the Juyo. Now say a Juyo in session 10 passed Tokuju later, that item has been colored in as a Tokuju. So basically (this is important that you understand what the chart represents), it’s like someone laid out all of the Juyo swords in order from end to end and plotted them.

Then, you go back and flag the original Juyo as a different color to show it went on to pass Tokuju.

So there are clear trends here which agree to things I’ve routinely said on my sword listings and elsewhere.


All of it

This is every sword plotted by length, with a high level confirmation… with the limit of a few o-dachi over 135cm. Just over 15,000.

Only about 10 years of work to get to that.

You can see various trends in here, the higher level papers show a clear ramp up in upper length (more ubu tachi present). The upper limit of wakizashi length shows clustering and we can see the longer wakizashi fall off the map when it gets to higher papers. Overall the strong visual signal for long swords shows that there is a clear preference for use in this range, and swords longer than about 78cm exist almost in a desert, they are so rare compared to the strongly defined standard length range.


I’ve been working on some tools to visualize data and see if the patterns allow for some new insights, or at least to confirm anecdotal evidence or gut level knowledge.

This below is a chart of sword lengths vs. year of production for all Juyo Token, Tokubetsu Juyo Token and Juyo Bijutsuhin swords. I cut the length off at 150 cm, as there are a scattering of outlier swords (odachi and onaginata) that will cause the chart to compress.

Anyway you should be able to look at this image and draw a few conclusions. What do you see?

Analysis after the break…

Continue reading Visualization

Honami Origami and Valuations

Some time ago I had a Fukuoka Ichimonji katana with a Honami Kochu origami that stated a value of 100 gold pieces for the blade. I did not think too heavily about it. A dealer from Japan happened to see the blade and pointed out the paper and he said “That valuation is very unusual, I never saw one like that.”

I thought for some years he was referring to the fact that it had a value on it at all, as I was mostly familiar with later Honami origami that didn’t have any value on them. Recently I encountered another one like this, and so I decided to look at whatever records I could find about Honami valuations and try to dig more deeply into the subject.

Continue reading Honami Origami and Valuations

Cause and Effect

I started with a flowchart, but that made this harder to understand than it should.

People traditionally have problems in this area. When observing phenomena that occur together, people often assign them a causal relationship in error.

To illustrate this, consider that I am born into a prehistoric tribe, and the tribe’s shaman every day does a sunrise dance. I am born into this society, and I am told that the sunrise dance is required to please the sun god, and the sun god reacts to this by rising above the horizon and giving us light and warmth and all good things. Through my life every day the shaman does this dance, and I am in fact trained to replace him so that on the day he dies, the next morning I do the sunrise dance and bring the sun up. Nobody is interested in testing this belief out because it will be disaster to not have the sun come up.

Thus, every day I believe:

I do the dance [cause]  ==> The sun comes up [effect]

The reality of it of course is that there is no causal relationship between my dance and the sunrise. Rather they are correlated phenomena that have to do with the time of day which is itself based on the rotation of the earth relative to the sun.

morning ==> sunrise dance

morning ==> sunrise

We see this kind of failure to sort out cause and effect consistently in buying behavior among collectors.

Continue reading Cause and Effect

Denrai: chicken or the egg?

Denrai are heirloom items that belonged to well known clans from the feudal era of Japan.

Some of these were very powerful regional clans and have famous warlords in their lineages, and many of them played significant roles in the history of Japan. These are clans like the Uesugi, Shimazu, Mori, and so forth. 

There are also minor clans without significant power bases. On top of this all we add the Tokugawa Shogun and the Mito, Kishu and Owari branches of the Tokugawa family who stand apart from the other daimyo. 

There are some reasons why denrai status is important, outside of the historical interest and coolness factor to have a sword that belonged to one of the major clans.

When we look at the NBTHK Juyo zufu there are about 453 out of almost 12,000 swords that went Juyo and higher that have preserved information about what clan handed them down. This is a surprisingly small number of only 3 percent and points out that it is quite rare to have one of these blades.

Continue reading Denrai: chicken or the egg?

It’s just one guy

I posted before about the study of generations in attributions. In the past it’s been considered that there were two generations (or more) of various smiths and I took out examples like Kanemitsu and Motoshige. These smiths lived long and prosperous lives and as a result saw a lot of style changes due to the times changing under them.

Think about the clothes you were wearing 30 years ago and what you’re wearing now. Well maybe that’s not a great example because some of us (ahem) kind of get stuck in time and don’t move too much. But if you go back far enough you will find photos of yourself that look out of place with today’s fashion. If you go back even further you may see clothes that repeated fashions from previous times.

The genius of the Ko-Bizen smiths seems to be that they experimented and tried out many different styles. There are some with hamon that look like good Soshu den, there are some that completely predict the Ichimonji styles of the Kamakura period. In general though the work of Ko-Bizen can be said to have a natural feeling and construction compared to a more forcible infliction of the smith’s will on the blade as we see happening with middle to later period Ichimonji work.

What is important to realize is that there was a general move toward choji style in the middle Kamakura that extended past the Ichimonji smiths of Bizen. It embraced Osafune, Rai, Hatakeda and early Ukai schools probably among others.

Continue reading It’s just one guy

Something Beautiful

Goto Ichijo when he worked in iron tended to use the name Hakuo (伯応).

Iron is not one of the traditional materials of the Goto family and it seems he tried to keep his work separated in this manner. This tsuba was made at the age of 75 (inscription is on the other side). 

Markus Sesko says that that the literal meaning is acting as an older brother, or a leader, with the implication that it was breaking new territory for the Goto house. 

He used another inscription on these Hakuo pieces from time to time which is Totsu-sanjin (凸凹山人) and has the meaning “Hermit of Unevenness.” It leaves one with a feeling that in spite of his extraordinary skill, he maintained a feeling of humility and constantly explored new ground.

I really have no words for describing the beauty of this tsuba, it escapes me. 

Fresh and New

Just picked up the lastest Juyo volume (from the 2017 session). This is the oshigata page for the Norishige on my site that I recommended to my clients as a Juyo candidate. One of them took me up on the offer.

Looks like the NBTHK will not do any more nakago oshigata but has moved to high resolution photography for the nakago, while doing oshigata for the monouchi. 

I think it’s an interesting and good change. 

By the way the polish on this one was done by Ted Tenold. I bought it a bit rusty. As you can see there is a little bit of activity on this sword.


Daisho and Daishoisn’t

I’ve written about daisho a few times in the past 10 years. It may bear some repeating. 

Daisho most properly refers to the fittings that contain a pair of swords. This was hammered into me by Cary Condell. The reason for this is that any pair of swords can be put together by a user for his preferences. You can have a katana and a tanto mounted together for instance. Or katana and wakizashi. Or you could mount those in handachi koshirae. The makers of the swords don’t matter, the assumption is that the user is picking two swords he liked and trusted and fit his needs or style of fighting. 

If you were buying a Hugo Boss suit you would not necessarily buy a Hugo Boss shirt to go with it, you might have an Armani shirt. Or, you could have a black gap T-shirt under the suit jacket. Whatever your needs are. However, you could match the suit and shirt if you wanted.

Continue reading Daisho and Daishoisn’t

Token Girls

You may have been noting the girls showing up for sword exhibitions in Japan. At museums, and in the new NBTHK, it’s frequently seen. Also standing in front of Sokendo and taking some selfies. 

The world is changing.

Thanks to a video game. 

5,000 of them linked up to see the Meibutsu O-Kurikara Hiromitsu which belongs to one of my clients. Have a read about them at